19. “Taking Variance Seriously: Visualizing the Statistical and Substantive Significance of ARCH-GARCH Models,” with Soren Jordan and Andrew Q. Philips, The Journal of Politics, forthcoming.
{Journal Link} {Ungated Version} {Supplemental Materials} {Replication Files}
18. “Does the @realDonaldTrump Really Matter to Financial Markets?” with Andrew Q. Philips, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 64, No. 1, January 2020 (pp.169-190).
{Journal Link} {Ungated Version} {Supplemental Materials} {Replication Files}
17. “Party Leaders or Party Reputations? How Vertical Partisan Alignment Works to Rein in Fiscal Profligacy,” The Journal of Politics, Vol.81, No. 1, January 2019, pp. 201-214.
16. “Violent Crime and Capital Market Punishment: How Violent Crime Affects the Supply of Debt to Municipal Mexico,” Studies in Comparative International Development, Vol. 52, No. 4, December 2017 (pp. 483-509).
15. “The Impact of Parties and Elections on Municipal Debt Policy in Mexico,” with Heidi Jane M. Smith, Governance, Vol. 30, No. 4, October 2017 (pp. 621-639).
14. “The Role of Metropolitan Cooperation and Administrative Capacity in Subnational Debt Dynamics,” with Heidi Jane M. Smith, Public Budgeting & Finance, Vol. 37, No. 2, Summer 2017 (pp. 58-82).
13. “Configuring Authority over Electoral Manipulation in Electoral Authoritarian Regimes: Evidence from Mexico,” Democratization, Vol. 24, No. 3, April 2017 (pp.521-543).
12. “How “Participatory Governance” Strengthens Authoritarian Regimes: Evidence from Electoral Authoritarian Oaxaca, Mexico,” Journal of Politics in Latin America, Vol. 8, No. 2, September 2016 (pp. 37-70).
11. “Partisan Policy Promises and Sector-Specific Stock-Market Performance: Evidence from Mexico’s 2006 Presidential Campaign,” Business and Politics, Vol. 15, No. 2, August 2013 (pp. 187-215).
10. “Bottom-Up Challenges to National Democracy: Mexico’s (Legal) Subnational Authoritarian Enclaves,” Comparative Politics, Vol. 44, No. 3, April 2012 (pp. 253-271).
9. “The Catholic Church, Political Institutions, and Electoral Outcomes in Oaxaca, Mexico,” Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales,Vol. LVI, Núm. 213, December 2011 (pp. 125-155).
8. “On the Ground: Candidate Appearances and Events during the 2006 Mexican Presidential Campaign” with Joy Langston, Política y Gobierno, 15 Aniversario, Volumen Temática: Elecciones en México, ed. Allyson Benton, October 2009 (pp. 135-176).
7. “What Makes Strong Federalism Seem Weak? Fiscal Resources and Presidential-Provincial Relations in Argentina,” Publius: The Journal of Federalism, Vol. 39, No. 4, Fall 2009 (pp. 651-676).
6. “The Effect of Electoral Rules on Indigenous Voting Behavior in Mexico,” Política y Gobierno, Vol. XVI, Núm. 1, Primer Semestre de 2009 (pp. 37-70).
5. “Do Investors Assess the Credibility of Campaign Commitments? The Case of Mexico’s 2006 Presidential Race,” Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 61, No. 3, September 2008 (pp. 403-518).
4. “The Strategic Struggle for Patronage: Political Careers, State Largesse, and Factionalism in Latin American Parties,” Journal of Theoretical Politics, Vol. 19, No. 1, January 2007 (pp. 55-82).
3. “Who’s Afraid of López Obrador? Market Responses to Election Polling Trends during the 2006 Mexican Presidential Campaign,” Colombia Internacional, Núm. 64, julio-diciembre 2006, December 2006 (pp. 68-95).
2. “Dissatisfied Democrats or Retrospective Voters? Economic Hardship, Political Institutions, and Voting Behavior in Latin America,” Comparative Political Studies, Vol 38, No. 4, May 2005 (pp. 417-542).
1. “Strong Presidents, Powerful Provinces: The Case of Argentina,” Política y Gobierno, Vol X, Núm. 1, Primer Semestre de 2003 (pp. 103-137).
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